AUTHOR
Saskia Meuchelböck
Abstract
This paper studies how firms adjust to temporary infrastructure disruptions, using a period of exceptionally low water levels on European inland waterways as a natural experiment. Linking monthly trade and transport data for Germany, I show that firms relying on inland shipping for imports reduced the value, variety, and geographic scope of their exports. These effects were strongest among firms with limited transport diversification and cannot be explained by demand shocks or export constraints, highlighting the role of supply bottlenecks. Affected firms adapted by persistently switching to alternative transport modes, showing that even short-lived shocks can induce lasting behavioural change.
Keywords:
Extreme weather events, Global Supply Chains, Firms, Infrastructure, Transport
mode, Low water, Climate change, Adaptation, Germany
Publication Date
August 2025
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