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Niclas Frederic Poitiers, Luca Léry Moffat

Executive summary

This paper explores both the character and impact of three recent shocks to global supply chains: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war. These were large shocks which had significant impacts on domestic and international supply chains, but differed in their longevity, economic impact and policy responses.

We show that supply chains were remarkably resilient to shocks of such magnitude. However, this resilience was also achieved due to the equally remarkable size and scope of policy responses and global supply chain reorganisation.

We recommend that pre-emptive policies may be justified to shield households and industry from future shocks. Given the entangled nature of these shocks and that their effects continue to reverberate, we emphasise the need for extensive future research to understand the nature of these shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses.

Publication Date

February 2024

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